Anyone looking for longs above 1.36?

2017년 9월 17일

Weekly gain/loss: + 395 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.3583

Cable printed another impressive weekly candle last week, consequently breaking through the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.3371 and landing the unit within touching distance of a major resistance coming in at 1.3683 (seen as far back as 2001). With USDX weekly action printing a bearish pin bar last week from resistance at 11854, there’s a strong possibility GBP resistance will come into play this week. Looking down to the daily timeframe, there’s not really much to add except that the USDX daily candles show further selling could be seen down to demand at 11681-11749 (fuses with a channel support taken from the low 12352).
Reviewing Friday’s movement on the H4 timeframe reveals that the pound surged higher on Friday, after BoE policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe, a usual dove, signaled a shift in the BoE’s bias towards an interest-rate hike. The pair, after trading nearly 200 pips on the day, eventually found some refuge at the 1.36 handle going into the closing bell.

Suggestions: Though there are three beautiful-looking H4 selling wicks in view from 1.36, this would be a challenging sell. Aside from strong sentiment, price may want to push up to the aforesaid weekly resistance before any serious sellers begin making a play. As a result, the desk will be watching for 1.36 to give way. Should this occur and price retests the number as support, followed by a full, or near-full-bodied bull candle, we would look to long this market up to the 1.3680 neighborhood.

Data points to consider: No high-impacting events on the docket today.


Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 1.36 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a H4 confirming bull candle to form following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).