GBPUSD Below Parity - A Long Term View

2022년 7월 9일

Since the market high of 2007 , the British Pound has seen a steady depreciation to the US dollar


1. First Impulsive Movement - from late 2007 to early 2009. Price fell 7700+ pips.

2. First Corrective Movement - a P wave within a triangle that lasted 65 bars till June 2014

3. Second Impulsive Movement - from June 2014 till October 2016 , with 28 bars and price falling 5400+ pips.

4. Second Corrective Movement - from October 2016 to May 2021, with 57 bars of consolidation in a flag pattern.

5. Third Impulsive Wave - I am thinking a 5 wave pattern which started in May 2021 . Where can we estimate it to go.


a. Price Level - using an approximation of the impulsive movements ( 5500 pips) would take price to .8700. Fibonacci Equal Extensions of both impulsive waves
sets a zone of price between .8700 - .9500.

b. Time Frame - using the second impulsive wave as a guide , the low in the Pound is estimated around September 2023.

It is not unreasonable to see the Pound trading over the next few years in a lower RANGE between .8500 and parity.