GBPUSD Insight

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Yesterday, the U.S. released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims. The September CPI showed a slowdown to 2.4%, compared to 2.5% in the previous month, but it exceeded the market’s expectation of 2.3%. Core CPI came in at 3.3%, also above the expected 3.2%. Initial jobless claims were 258,000, significantly higher than the market's forecast of 231,000. The market interprets this as inflation being more persistent than expected, while the job market remains uncertain.

Within the Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, left the possibility of a rate pause open. However, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, emphasized a dovish tone, showing a division in opinion within the Fed.

Meanwhile, in the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that if positive inflation data emerges, they may take more aggressive and activist steps toward cutting rates.

Upcoming key economic data releases:

- October 11: UK August GDP, Germany September CPI, US September PPI.
- October 16: UK September CPI.
- October 17: Eurozone September CPI, ECB rate decision, US September retail sales.

The GBP/USD is facing resistance at the 1.34000 level, experiencing a pullback. The price has extended its decline to the 1.30000 level and appears to be preparing for a rebound from this area. If a rebound occurs, it could push the price back up to the resistance level at 1.38000. However, if the rebound fails, it is expected to fall further to the 1.27000 level.

If the market moves differently than expected, I will quickly adjust the strategy.