롱

POUND STERLING’S PROSPECTS SEEING THROUGH THE BREXIT FOG UPDATE

업데이트됨

My original chart on GBPUSD was published on TalkMarkets just before the BREXIT vote in June 2016. I have recently published an update which you can read here to save me having to type all again -
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/pound-sterlings-prospects-seeing-through-the-brexit-fog-update?post=127344&uid=8599

However, in addition to all the details already highlighted in those 2 publications, to support a bullish view, consider the historical Commitment of Traders positions of Large Speculators and Commercials along with Open Interest.

As shown in the chart below, whenever we have comparatively high Open Interest or spike at high level, it often marks a significant or intermediate low in this pair. These instances are marked in blue arrows to help highlighting what I am referring to.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3cLBDZKV/

At the same time, we note that we have historical extreme net short position by large Speculators who are trend followers and are likely to be wrong the turning points. This net short position has been increasing till recently and only dropped by negligible amount in the data release last Friday (31st March 2017). Whilst at the same time, since flash crash low on 7th October 2016, we have noted higher lows being formed. If the above holds true then we might have very significant low established in October, and since then we have what looks like potential triple bottom or possible diamond bottom formed, if you ignore the initial wick on October low.

Seasonality shows that April is strongest month for GBP. You can check this at http://charts.equityclock.com/british-pound-futures-bp-seasonal-chart

Finally, in the chart below I have charted a sum of all major GBP pairs and divided it by 7 to give me what could be viewed as equal weighted (by prices) index of GBP which also bottomed in Oct 2016 and appear to have had an impulsive rally and subsequent lethargic retracement. This gives the impression that it could be ready to experience a bullish breakout.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lE7s7fbh/

Whilst there are likely to be set backs along the way, an intermediate term breakout target could be as high as 1.34.

Conclusion: look to enter with suitable position sizing on temporary weakness using daily 4hrly chart and generous Stop Loss to establish initial position and gradually build larger positions using prudent money management.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

노트

8Hr -

노트

Wave "e" of the potential triangle did not pull back to the preferred level and appears to be truncated. This suggest the bullish breakout is very strong and has some way to go. Initial level for minor 5 wave move could carry it to 1.30 area.

노트

Coming close to completing initial minor 5 wave cycle. Anticipate retracement back to 1.27 - 1.26 zone and the price action will help clarify if we will get further follow through to the upside.
Here is the snapshot -

노트

Next week is very busy with some big events pencilled in including Fed Rate. GBPUSD has almost completed initial minor 5 wave cycle and is due for retracement. Any longs should be exited or have tight stop loss.

Seasonally May is very bullish for USD. Hence there will be some time before a re-entry for long will develop around $1.26 - $1.27

Here is the chart -