GBPUSD analysis post UK election - long/short positions possible

업데이트됨

Keep a very close eye on the UK political news over the next couple of weeks if you are looking to trade this pair.

In the event of a tory leadership election to oust Theresa May, I have reason to believe that this would be short term bearish for the GBP due to the increased uncertainty. This happened last year during the post-Brexit Conservative party leadership election.

Conversely, the Conservative Party have now agreed to form a coalition government with the DUP of Northern Ireland; this could possibly result in a 'soft Brexit' on the cards as opposed to a 'hard Brexit', reason being Theresa May no longer has a mandate or the support for a 'hard Brexit'. The DUP will also likely make demands for the NI/Ireland border to remain a 'soft border' like it currently is - this would require the UK to retain freedom of movement within the EU, which could also mean that the UK remains in the single market. This would be bullish for the GBP in the long term as a result of the reduced economic risk, especially in the services sector which makes up close to 80% of the UK economy.

I am expecting continued heavy volatility in this pair over the next few weeks.

Short term buys are in the 1.262-1.264 previous region.

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노트

Biased to the buy side as DXY is overbought and looking to sell off over the next week, while the impact of the election seems to have subsided for the time being.

BUY LIMIT @ 1.26489
SL @ 1.25325
TP 1 @ 1.27778
TP 2 @ 1.28863

Keep an eye on the UK political news as well as the FOMC interest rate decision on the 14th. Trade at your own risk

노트

The situation seems to have stabilised, expect a gap up or down on opening. Buy every dip at 1.267 or below, if a 'soft brexit' is agreed on I can easily see this going towards 1.35 long term. Will be a bumpy ride however due to tory infighting.

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