LONG GBPNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.01% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *

2016년 9월 20일

Long GBPNZD:

1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily.

2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD.

3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little over-offered, with the reason for the aggressive move lower uncertain at best imo - whilst today we saw the kiwi/ GDT Price index trade much softer than recent months which is a positive to be short kiwi tactically.

4. Technically there is also a triple bottom forming at the 1.77 level (previous 2 support lows) which is even more reason to take a long position.

Trading Strategy:

1. Buy GBPNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.

Any questions please ask!

2016년 9월 21일

노트

EURNZD 2x Longs added on the 6th daily close higher to trade 0.32% higher currently