GBPCHF coming SHORT

2014년 7월 10일

Taking a look at W and D charts, one can see that a top has been reached (red horiz. line). On D, price has moved above the YPR1 (also where 50% fib is) and tested it again on the 1st move down only to bounce from it. Right under YPR1 price has barely challenged the Weekly 200 EMA (fat solid black line). Price is now back above WPP and 38.2% fib.

Blue line is under green line and start looking like they want to curve down. We are not yet at the sell point. However, one has to wonder about the tiny bounce up off the YPR1 (only 30 pips). If in the coming days PA doesn't challenge significantly MPR1 and the top mentioned above, and therefore continues to pull away from the black volatility band (modified Bollinger Band at 2 standard deviations), then it will be time to look for an entry point on H4 to initiate a short with TP at least at MPP = 1.5160.

Of course, the studies all reflect a weakening of the upward momentum, but that in itself is not enough to conclude we should short. Also, take a look at H4.