GB10Y - pensions at risk?

2023년 5월 23일

Here show similarities of 2007, before the 2008 financial collapse!
both show reaching their peak, pulling back then heading towards retracement level's.
2007 couldn't hold the 0.702 retracement, bond price reversed and took out the low's.
23/05/23. today we are heading for the same scenario!
will be waiting to see if we can break and hold the 0.702, if not then I would expect the same pattern to play out. this would weaken pension's, the value of the pound and cause liquidity issues.
BOE already said back in October 2022, that they would step in and double there purchase's, but this would be the last time.
expecting more strength in the pound on the shorter timeframe, if we see another leg down from the DXY (US Dollar).
Debt ceiling coming up June 1st. i think its likely they'll raise the debt ceiling. this will create more liquidity, plus inflation will start to creep up.
may see more banking liquidity issue's banks balance sheets will be heavily leveraged in bonds/gilts. Uk may need to keep raising rate's against the falling pound.
united states will have extra liquidity to bail out banks. (if they raise the debt ceiling)
this is when i would expect stag-flation to occur, combination of pausing rate hike's, whilst also creating extra liquidity to support failing banks.
interesting times ahead, will be looking at these resistance level's as an indication on what come's next for the pound!