$FSLR - Went to my magic 8 ball for this one

2018년 8월 12일

A while back sometime after the intense plummet in price I remember this ticker (somewhat) expecting a dead cat bounce - never really even got that lol. Like plenty of other people I'm sure, I lost some $$ with this one. What was even more frustrating was the fact that CEO probably was more bearish on his own stock than other bears were (multiple, multiple insider transactions selling mad often). I kept it on watch more-or-less just because I wanted to see how the chart would play out since, so long after consolidation there HAD to be some technical catalyst for a breakdown / breakout - important to note though, despite how far the price plummeted, I wouldn't consider it in a down-trend unless 180WMA was below both 193 low EMA & low 315 EMA. Wasn't too long ago I found a few comparisons to go off of where price plummets (typically, big gap down is involved) but sits in consolidation right on major support / downtrend considerable ranges until the "curve" of lows is capable of making new highs (since price hasn't done anything but consolidate after a major move). The 55 low MA (the "Curve") & its placement / degree @ an angle is more of a leading indicator than a lagging one for me. Acts differently in every which setup I see, but I'll leave the examples I found to clarify where I'm coming from. The red lines in all 3 charts act as a countdown until the "Curve" slopes up (either candle before the gap down, or candle that breaks support of the previous price range). Not that price breaks out RIGHT after, but you'll see in both examples there's a steady increase before the obvious breakout of that consolidation is made clear. BUT, like I said, this is the magic 8 ball. Not my most reliable setup, but not TOO much of a coincidence to potentially see. Fib re-traces are all different since this isn't the chart I see all the time, but long story short - up-swing ends up around 127% if not where the white curve started to slope down-ward in the first place.

Ex. 1 -
Ex. 2 -

2018년 8월 16일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

You know I legitimately had TPR saved & on watch. Usually when I find a good chart & have an theory on (potential) big moves - I'll save a screenshot. Unfortunately I never saved it, but you'll have to take my word for it. I'm gonna technically stop out of FSLR - you'll notice that the gap has a lot to do with the white curve - the more long fat ass black candles FSLR saw on the down-side is really weighing that white curve down, & the 20EMA is avoiding crossing over the low 55 MA @ all costs. Might be better to get short / puts.

Ex. 3