The Med-Tech Big Data Revolution - Deep Value

2018년 9월 11일

Summary: Fitbit is in the early stages of its pivot from consumer products to med-tech. It has the distribution, sales, and brand recognition to position itself as a frontrunner in the med-tech big data revolution.

The main reason I think this is a huge sleeper is Fitbit is on the verge of switching to a SaaS company with recurring revenue. Key partnerships also give it a huge chance of being first.

In December 2017 Stockfish Chess AI was beaten by Googles AlphaZero's deep learning algorithm after it taught itself to play in only 4 hours. Stockfish searches 70 Million positions, Googles AlphaZero only 80 000. Alphazero won with 28 wins 72 draws 0 losses.

We are on the cusp of a biotech and infotech revolution and Fitbit is a company ready to take advantage.

- Google partnerships
- Uptrend in R&D (and double the spend compared to garmin)
- Recurring non-device revenue and big customers like insurance

Thesis: Starting with the big picture on a weekly time frame, we see this is a previous momentum stock that has clearly based. Most attractive is it clearly broke out on huge volume before retesting. Are we seeing disbelief?

This is a long term fundamental play. Next we will look at it from a closer perspective for entry and exit and confirmation strategies.


Exit Point / Timeframe: Long term fundamental growth play

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

2018년 9월 17일

노트

Here is another look from a monthly perspective

2018년 9월 17일

노트

Here is a closer look - 4 hour chart