2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me.
comment: Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900.
Invalidation is below 19900.
bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance.
Invalidation is above 20200.
short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me.
comment: Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900.
Invalidation is below 19900.
bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance.
Invalidation is above 20200.
short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
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