2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings.
dax futures
comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900
bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now).
Invalidation is below 17700.
bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update.
Invalidation is above 18020.
short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940
trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
tl;dr
Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings.
dax futures
comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900
bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now).
Invalidation is below 17700.
bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update.
Invalidation is above 18020.
short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940
trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
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