Green Bull Flag in FCPO

4월 2일

From a technical standpoint, prices have consolidated into a bull flag consolidation pattern since 14 March, breaking out of the flag resistance (orange trend channel) yesterday, albeit with normal volume. This localised breakout coupled with the breakout of the long-term parabolic bowl accumulation pattern at 4,150, a pattern forming since July 2023, signalled a possible continuation of the bullish climb to retest 4350 levels.

Fibonacci retracements can be seen respected at 61%, 50% and 38% respectively. Immediate support is foreseen around the 4,200 levels, a zone created from a combination of both 50% fibo and the high from previous surge – green line support.

Sustained prices above the bull flag pattern for the next two days are likely to drive further upward movement, aiming to breach the 4,350 level and potentially reaching 4,500 levels. This upward momentum may be fueled by short liquidations and breakout buys. Conversely, a drop below the 4,150 level could prompt a retreat towards the crucial support level of 4,000.

Regarding correlated edible oils, technical indicators for CBOT soyoil futures indicate a bullish divergence, with prices rebounding noticeably from recent lows. The trajectory suggests a continuation of the bullish trend following a retracement to the 47-48 cents per pound levels last week.

Trading Idea:
Entry: Long 2 lots FCPO @ 4230
SL: 4190
TP: 1 lot @ 4330 ; another @ 4480

- Darren, Phillip Nova Analyst