26/9/25 Bulls Want Strong Weekly Candlestick

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Sept 25) was a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create strong follow-through buying, closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would stall around the 20-day EMA (around the 4450 area), followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the Sept 23 low instead.
   
3. The market traded higher to test 4450, but has not closed above it yet.
   
4. The bulls view the recent move as a deeper two-legged pullback and want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Aug 29 and Sep 23).
   
5. They want the pullback to lack follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (July 1 and August 4). So far, this appears to be the case.
   
6. They want the move (Sep 23) to turn into a bear trap.
   
7. They want the breakout from the trading range to fail, reversing back into the trading range (around the 4450 area). The market is now trading around this area.
   
8. Next, the bulls want the market to close above the 20-day EMA. They want the weekly candlestick to close as a strong bull bar near its high with a long tail above.
   
9. They must create a strong bull bar tomorrow to end the week on a high note.
   
10. The bears got a deep pullback and a breakout below the tight trading range, but the move lacked sustained follow-through selling.
    
11. The bears hope that the current move is a retest of the breakout point.
    
12. They want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the Sept 23 low.
    
13. If the market trades higher, they want the 4500-50 area to act as resistance, forming a lower high and a double top.
    
14. They need to create strong bear bars to show they are in control.
    
15. Production for Sept should be flat or down. Oct's production should be flat to down as well.
    
16. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
17. Export: Sept: First 20 days +12% per ITS.
    
18. So far, the market has reversed back into the trading range, which is a magnet.
    
19. The bulls want Friday to close as a strong bull bar. If they get this, the weekly candlestick will close near its high with a long tail below, increasing the odds of next week trading at least a little higher.
    
20. The bears want Friday to close as a strong bear bar. They want the weekly candlestick to close with a bear body and below the middle of its range.
    
21. For tomorrow (Friday, Sept 26), traders will see if the bulls can create strong follow-through buying, closing above the 20-day EMA.
    
22. Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA (around the 4450 area), closing below the 20-day EMA instead?
    

Andrew