28/11/25 Bulls Want Strong Weekly Bar, Bears Want Tail Above

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Nov 27) was a follow-through bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our previous report, we stated that traders would watch to see if the bulls could create a consecutive bull bar closing near its high, or if the market would trade slightly higher, but the candlestick would close below the middle of its range with a long tail above.
   
3. The market traded higher towards the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
   
5. They hope the recent tight trading range will be the final flag of the move and want the market to reverse back into the tight trading range.
   
6. At the least, they hope for a small pullback to the 20-day EMA. This move is underway.
   
7. They must produce strong consecutive bull bars to show they are clearly in control.
   
8. The bears reached the measured-move target of the 4000–3950 area this week.
   
9. The bears want the 20-day EMA to act as a resistance level, followed by a retest of the November low.
   
10. They want any pullback (bounce) to be weak, characterized by overlapping candlesticks and a long tail extending above.
    
11. Fundamentals
    
12. • Production: SPPOMA increased by about 5% in the first 25 days.
    
13. • Refineries: Buying interest is still there at these low prices. Not paying premiums vs spot futures.
    
14. • Exports: ITS said exports are down 18.48% in the first 25 days.
    
15. Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel, indicating strong selling momentum.
    
16. The market remains Always-In-Short.
    
17. The selloff was also climactic and slightly oversold. There could be a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA, which may have begun.
    
18. Today (Friday, Nov. 28), bulls want the candlestick to close near its high, so the weekly candlestick will close as a strong bull bar. If this is the case, the market may trade at least a little higher next week.
    
19. Bears want today to close as a strong bear bar, so the weekly candlestick will close with a bear body or a prominent tail above.
    

Andrew