10/7/25 Can The Bears Create Sustained FT Selling?

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 9) was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar above the June 20 high, or if the market would trade slightly higher but close with a long tail or a bearish body instead.
   
3. The bulls got some follow-through buying in the morning but the market reversed to close with a long tail above and closing below yesterday's low.
   
4. The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 4 high and the Jun 20 high. They got what they wanted.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
   
6. They see the current move as a pullback and want it to form a higher low vs Jul 7.
   
7. They want another leg up to complete the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jul 3 and Jul 9.
   
8. The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
   
9. They see the current move from June 11 as a large two-legged move. They want a lower high vs the April high.
   
10. They must create sustained follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
    
11. Production for July should be around June's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Up 31% in the first 5 days of July.
    
14. Inflation expectations subsiding slightly with the U.S. 10-Year Yield down 1% currently.
    
15. For now, the market is trading slightly in the night market. Traders will see if this is simply a pullback, to be followed by another leg up or if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling.
    
16. For tomorrow (Thursday, Jul 10), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar closing near its low.
    
17. Or will the market trade lower, but close with a long tail below or above the middle of its range instead?
    

Andrew