Assuming you were texting a friend on the mobile phone and she did not reply you within the next half an hour. What thoughts came to your mind ?
If you have a low self esteem, then you probably conclude that she does not like you. You begin to build a mental picture in your mind. Later that week, you bumped into her across the street but she was with a group of friends. She seems to be enjoying the company and having fun. There, you reinforce the mental picture in your mind that probably she has forgotten who you are and will not return your call.
Out of boredom, you text your friend about this matter and he told you he saw her with a new guy who just come onboard the school. There you have it, all evidence are in. Anger, bitterness, jealousy, etc came into your mind. You decided to "break off" with her , claiming she is two timing you, not being faithful and a lousy friend.
In reality, this is how confirmation bias works.It is none other than a self=fulfilling prophecy. We go around looking for evidence to match what we want to believe in.
What about trading? Beyond the fundamental news and charts and indicators, what truly drives the prices up or down are the beliefs of the traders. And beliefs are a form of confirmation bias as well.
In the case of FB, its corporate earnings will be released tomorrow , 29 Feb 2020. Those who long FB like me in some way believes that the share price will continue to go up. We will search for information to match our beliefs. And vice versa, those who think this counter is overvalued and want to short it will also interpret the chart differently. They too will search for information to match their self fulfilling prophecy.
So who wins ? Whichever camp has the most votes win, haha. It is like the see-saw, buyers on one side and sellers on the other.
Which side are you on ?
If you have a low self esteem, then you probably conclude that she does not like you. You begin to build a mental picture in your mind. Later that week, you bumped into her across the street but she was with a group of friends. She seems to be enjoying the company and having fun. There, you reinforce the mental picture in your mind that probably she has forgotten who you are and will not return your call.
Out of boredom, you text your friend about this matter and he told you he saw her with a new guy who just come onboard the school. There you have it, all evidence are in. Anger, bitterness, jealousy, etc came into your mind. You decided to "break off" with her , claiming she is two timing you, not being faithful and a lousy friend.
In reality, this is how confirmation bias works.It is none other than a self=fulfilling prophecy. We go around looking for evidence to match what we want to believe in.
What about trading? Beyond the fundamental news and charts and indicators, what truly drives the prices up or down are the beliefs of the traders. And beliefs are a form of confirmation bias as well.
In the case of FB, its corporate earnings will be released tomorrow , 29 Feb 2020. Those who long FB like me in some way believes that the share price will continue to go up. We will search for information to match our beliefs. And vice versa, those who think this counter is overvalued and want to short it will also interpret the chart differently. They too will search for information to match their self fulfilling prophecy.
So who wins ? Whichever camp has the most votes win, haha. It is like the see-saw, buyers on one side and sellers on the other.
Which side are you on ?
코멘트:
www.marketwatch...-day-2020-04-28?mod=home-p...
코멘트:
Praise the Lord
Congrats to those who followed and longed. FB went up 10.4% yesterday. Suggest taking partial profits and let remaining run. Correction might be coming.
Congrats to those who followed and longed. FB went up 10.4% yesterday. Suggest taking partial profits and let remaining run. Correction might be coming.
코멘트:
nice move , lots of room up there, keep moving .........
코멘트:
Pretty accurate huh ?
