Welcome everyone, EUR USD definitely looks interesting after recent price action. I will divide this analysis into sections explaining my thought process on this pair.
Disclaimer: The pair had an amazing run after bottoming on 1.045, I won’t be going into detail with long term trends, I will keep things simple for now. Dictating long term trends may bring short term bias and unnecessary emotions to people when a pair moves 100 or 1000 pips away from long term targets. All I can say is that the pair looks very promising in the decade to come, not just because of recent moves of course, rather overall.
Section 1: The rise we saw from the bottom was very expected from lows, now the question becomes what to expect next? I still do believe the pair is going to the area around 1.09, (30/40 pips +/-). Keep in mind the plus. 1.094 will have great resistance, if price reaches there. , also i would like to mention a 1.1 target for the cup and handle formation.
Section 2: Upcoming news for the DXY can be bullish for the EURUSD, of course markets are manipulated for liquidity and so even if the medium term seems one way, a different path can be taken in the short term, regardless of short term news reports. Remember: Markets are pre-engineered and will always move to wherever they are headed in the long-medium terms.
Section 3: This pair can be traded in 2 ways with coming price action in the short term, in mind → (depending on each one’s overall strategy.) We all have different strategies in trading, I’m just giving my own thought process with my own strategy. I could be looking for shorts on major resistance levels with a DCA entry strategy, only if price reaches them without a pullback first. Another way to trade the pair is, if a pullback occurs, then going long on support levels to ride upwards.
Suggestion 1: A short from around 1.09 to 1.077 (possibly lower) could be one trade, but of course this is just a thought, price with events will dictate the movements later according to liquidity.
Suggestion 2: Price rejects before reaching 1.09 and we long from 1.077, 1.074.
This is my thought process for now. I will be updating my idea, as my last 2 posts were. I will have a second post showing possible trades on a chart, (only if i see any really.)