EURUSD bears in control

2019년 2월 20일

Here expecting EURUSD to break down from its four-month range to the downside over the coming hours.

All of the Euro push up factors (growth expectations, improved politics etc) have all left the picture and now we are back to the same story before the rally towards 1.25.

Europe, particularly on a risk adjusted basis has worsened. Poor growth and inflation are pushing back any expectations of a hike from the ECB, while European equities continue to underperform the US.

This is not to say I expect a test of parity, rather that there is significant downside risk at a time when both actual and expected return differentials have moved sharply in favour of the US in a flight to quality (whatever that means).

From a technical perspective, a test of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement from December 2016 lows to early 2018 highs seems impossible to avoid now and as a result we are entering short ahead of the Fed minutes.

Wishing all those trading this one in live the best of luck, please continue to keep your support coming in with a like and comment.

Thanks

2019년 3월 1일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Damn. Timing was off, here is the latest EURUSD idea: