EURUSD What's in store (Long-Term)
업데이트됨
Here I am watching EURUSD on the Weekly time frame. I usually do not pay very close attention to the Weekly and Monthly time frames, but at this point in the market we are at an important level.
The market has been in this downtrend channel (in blue) since 2008. There have been multiple rejections off of the top of the channel, and the market is now approaching the top again. This time is different, however, because the trendline (in orange) is intersecting with the downtrend channel creating an even stronger resistance than experienced in the past. This orange trendline dates back to early 2000, which gives this trendline a long history in this market, and it has not been touched in years since the market drastically broke through it on the week of 1/5/2015.
What is interesting, is that the market has produced 2 bull flags within the smaller uptrend channel (in pink) and we have yet to breakout to the upside of the second one. We are now at a point where the market could breakout to the upside of the bull flag and run straight into resistance at the Monthly region of 1.25 (in red). If the market can confirm a break above that level the next resistance level is the intersection of the orange trendline and the top of the downtrend channel. A break above these resistance levels could send EURUSD sailing to the upside with a lot of momentum behind it. I don't think it is a coincidence we formed a bull flag at this crucial area, but not all formations follow through.
The 50 EMA (in blue) and the 200 EMA (in red) have now crossed signaling a possible sign of momentum being shifted to the upside, BUT the last two times we have attempted to break through the top of the blue channel the 50 EMA and 200 EMA did the same thing where they crossed and as soon as the rejection happened (at the top of the blue downtrend channel) the market was left with defeat and fell hard.
The MACD and the Stoch RSI have both found support twice on the black trend lines drawn out and are getting closer to finding support once again for a third time.
Overall, the main trend is down, and the market is getting very close to major resistance levels. Let's watch and see if this is the last time EURUSD finds defeat with the blue downtrend channel, sending us into new highs since we crossed over the 1.25 region to the downside back in 2014.
The EUR futures index is showing signs of strength, so maybe it can overtake the USD here!
-Mainstay
The market has been in this downtrend channel (in blue) since 2008. There have been multiple rejections off of the top of the channel, and the market is now approaching the top again. This time is different, however, because the trendline (in orange) is intersecting with the downtrend channel creating an even stronger resistance than experienced in the past. This orange trendline dates back to early 2000, which gives this trendline a long history in this market, and it has not been touched in years since the market drastically broke through it on the week of 1/5/2015.
What is interesting, is that the market has produced 2 bull flags within the smaller uptrend channel (in pink) and we have yet to breakout to the upside of the second one. We are now at a point where the market could breakout to the upside of the bull flag and run straight into resistance at the Monthly region of 1.25 (in red). If the market can confirm a break above that level the next resistance level is the intersection of the orange trendline and the top of the downtrend channel. A break above these resistance levels could send EURUSD sailing to the upside with a lot of momentum behind it. I don't think it is a coincidence we formed a bull flag at this crucial area, but not all formations follow through.
The 50 EMA (in blue) and the 200 EMA (in red) have now crossed signaling a possible sign of momentum being shifted to the upside, BUT the last two times we have attempted to break through the top of the blue channel the 50 EMA and 200 EMA did the same thing where they crossed and as soon as the rejection happened (at the top of the blue downtrend channel) the market was left with defeat and fell hard.
The MACD and the Stoch RSI have both found support twice on the black trend lines drawn out and are getting closer to finding support once again for a third time.
Overall, the main trend is down, and the market is getting very close to major resistance levels. Let's watch and see if this is the last time EURUSD finds defeat with the blue downtrend channel, sending us into new highs since we crossed over the 1.25 region to the downside back in 2014.
The EUR futures index is showing signs of strength, so maybe it can overtake the USD here!
-Mainstay
코멘트
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
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