We are still looking for price to trade lower from here...

2017년 2월 14일

The US dollar received a boost going into the early hours of yesterday’s US segment, as Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony was upbeat on labor market conditions. This saw the EUR plummet lower, taking out both the 1.06 handle and December’s monthly opening level at 1.0590, and consequently registering its fourth consecutive daily loss. Provided that the bears remain in the driving seat, we see very little H4 supports standing in the way until we reach January’s opening level at 1.0515.

With the weekly bears looking on course to challenge the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515/weekly support area at 1.0333-1.0502, and daily demand at 1.0589-1.0662 (now acting resistance area) now out of the picture, the next downside target on the higher timeframes can be seen at a daily support level coming in at 1.0520.

Our suggestions: As per the black arrows on the H4 chart, we’re ultimately looking for a retest of 1.06/1.0590 today. Assuming that this comes to fruition, and price chalks in a reasonably sized H4 bear candle, our team would, dependent on time of day, look to sell, targeting the 1.0520/1.0515 neighborhood.

Data points to consider: US CPI and US retail sales scheduled for release at 1.30pm, with another day of testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 3pm. FOMC member Harker speaks at 5.45pm GMT.