EURUSD Max Movement from MA

The EURUSD has plainly made a steady downtrend from 2008 and has never looked back.

Of interest is the swing down and it's relation to the 5 year MA.

1. GFC Swing - which started the whole ballgame of a weak EURO . Magnitude = 2955 pips. Duration = 4 bars.

2. EUROZONE Financial Crisis - starting in 2009 and lingering to 2015, as many EURO member nations required bailout. Magnitude = 2973 pips. Duration = 11 bars

So using these two swings to look for a potential price for the EURO from the current 5 year MA -

1. Magnitude - 2955 pips places price around .8520.

2. Duration - 11 bars would be October 2022 , and this seems a little quick. At 17 bars, April 2023 would be sufficient time for price to get close to bottom of channel.