EUR_USD When Will The Rise Stop?

2020년 12월 16일

EUR_USD is in the rally for 8 months now
With no end in sight, breaking through all possible resistance lines
This was a result of the FED cutting rates to almost zero in march 2020
Which whipped out the positive difference between the interest rates
Of Euro and US bonds, making the carry trade from EUR to USD pointless
700 billion QE and the Treasury Massive economic relief bills added fuel
To a wave of the closing longs on USD.
Thus, the rising Euro, and the falling Dollar
However, there is a limit to this effect.
Fundamentally,US economy is much healthier
And will recover faster, when the pandemic ends
Which will make the Dollar investments attractive again
Relative to the permanently stagnant Europe
Add to that the Global Dollar shortage
And the fact that the same Treasury stimuli that initially added pressure on the Dollar
Will boost the economy, while Europe, is barely launching its first recovery fund.
All that taken together means that the Euro will stop rising in the mid term perspective
And Start to decline back to the pre-pandemic levels
In the long Run
Technically, there is a strong resistance level
Near the local high of 1.25000
So I think it might be the high of this rally too.
Mid term-long
Long term-Short

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