Here’s a warning for latecomers to the EUR/USD rally

8월 22일EUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily.

That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided with some form of near-term top. Some have been small reversals, other considerably larger.

While that doesn’t guarantee another reversal on this occasion, it is a warning to those chasing the pair higher ahead in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. They were priced in long ago with the magnitude of expected easing not really changing over the past fortnight even as the dollar sank. The move comes across as technically driven, potentially making the signal from RSI more significant.

If we were to see a EUR/USD reversal, 1.1140, 1.10452 and 1.0948 are downside levels to note. Should the signal from RSI prove to be false, a continuation of the rally would likely target a push towards 1.12760, the high set in July last year. Watch for a topping pattern to strengthen the conviction of the trade. That’s not arrived yet on the daily timeframe.

DS