EUR/USD seen closing in on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After a period of reluctance (some would say bearish intent due to back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns), EUR/USD continued to extend recovery gains off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 Thursday.
The pair is seen closing in on the April 15 high at 1.0990, with a break unmasking the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 1.1035.
H4 timeframe:
Heading into the US session Thursday, the euro dipped to lows at 1.0833 vs. the greenback and retested a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147). This kept the single currency on the winning side of the table, powering towards an area of stacked supply between 1.1057/1.1013 and 1.1044/1.0966, which aligns with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635) and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
H1 timeframe:
The US dollar index tumbled Thursday, visiting lows at 98.81, ultimately lifting the single currency higher.
As we begin to enter into Asia Pac hours, we can see intraday action engaging with the 1.0950 neighbourhood, threatening the possibility of a rally towards supply at 1.0992/1.0980 and the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price, in the event we continue elbowing higher, will likely welcome the 200-day simple moving average into the mix at 1.1035.
1.1035 sits within the upper boundary of H4 supply at 1.1057/1.1013, nearby a trendline resistance.
1.1035 also implies we may witness a fakeout above the 1.10 figure on the H1 timeframe, filling buy stops. Sellers would have stops filled in this case, with breakout buyers also trapped should we reject 1.1035 (a bull trap).
Another scenario could have the current H4 trendline resistance cap upside, having seen the line converge with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After a period of reluctance (some would say bearish intent due to back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns), EUR/USD continued to extend recovery gains off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 Thursday.
The pair is seen closing in on the April 15 high at 1.0990, with a break unmasking the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 1.1035.
H4 timeframe:
Heading into the US session Thursday, the euro dipped to lows at 1.0833 vs. the greenback and retested a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147). This kept the single currency on the winning side of the table, powering towards an area of stacked supply between 1.1057/1.1013 and 1.1044/1.0966, which aligns with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635) and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
H1 timeframe:
The US dollar index tumbled Thursday, visiting lows at 98.81, ultimately lifting the single currency higher.
As we begin to enter into Asia Pac hours, we can see intraday action engaging with the 1.0950 neighbourhood, threatening the possibility of a rally towards supply at 1.0992/1.0980 and the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price, in the event we continue elbowing higher, will likely welcome the 200-day simple moving average into the mix at 1.1035.
1.1035 sits within the upper boundary of H4 supply at 1.1057/1.1013, nearby a trendline resistance.
1.1035 also implies we may witness a fakeout above the 1.10 figure on the H1 timeframe, filling buy stops. Sellers would have stops filled in this case, with breakout buyers also trapped should we reject 1.1035 (a bull trap).
Another scenario could have the current H4 trendline resistance cap upside, having seen the line converge with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
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