롱

EUR is weak but USD is weaker

업데이트됨

Central Bank monetary policy changes are the main drivers of currency trending moves.
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FED deprived US dollar from its value in carry trades by slashing interest rate to zero in line with ECB.
In 2020 both ECB and FED will struggle to feed the desired 2% inflation, which became a decent challenge due to COVID-19 pandemic effect on world economy. Besides the fact the fundamentally both currencies appeared to be relatively weak USD is weaker due to rate cuts that shrunk the margin between interest rates which kept USD relatively strong. Market should gradually depreciate this change therefore driving DXY lower and EURUSD higher.
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Forecast: EURUSD should surge. Buy targets: 1.2851 and 1.4220 are based on fibo extension of blue wave a.
It's assumed that blue wave b had been completed.
For further details on FED monetary policy feel free to watch USD fundamental & wave analysis publication.

노트

alright alright alright
long-term forecast is still valid.
assumptions regarding FED/ECB policy hold.
fundamentals:
despite rising inflation in USA, FED is not willing to do smth about it.
the absence of the reaction should drive USD down.
only moderate inflation is expected in EU.
taking into account that both CB are holding loose money policy, USD should remain weaker than EUR.
technical part:
I presume the 1st major upward wave was completed in January 2021. (wave 1)
Now major correction wave is ongoing. (wave 2)
I had expected EUR/USD will continue to appreciate after (white) a-b-c pattern is completed.
however, consequent appreciation in EUR (april-may) looks quite sluggish.
it reminds "wave B" classification, thus I assume that yellow (a) - (b) - (c) pattern is unfolding.
there is also rsi divergence. inside wave B peaks.

conclusion:
the continuation of major rise in EURUSD is likely to be postponed to late summer - autumn.

노트

option strategy may be useful when such volatility is expected.
long eur vs usd.
+
buy eur/usd put option.

액티브 트레이드

some 1+ month old drawings. no editing done since.

looks like (a)-(b)-(c) (yellow) flat pattern has been completed.
if true, eur/usd should be back on track of rising trend.
original long-term targets are valid.
here are new long-term targets based on recent data (since March 2020)
1.42-1.44 161.8% wave extension.