I was wrong shorting the Euro before, but what about now?

2021년 1월 8일

I called for shorting the Euro in June 2020 when it was at $1.13. Right now it's at $1.22, and I see a few signs of reversal in the EUR vs USD chart. The most prominent is the RSI divergence between the two recent tops. You can see the similarity with the two tops in the second half of 2017. However, this is not yet a call to short. We need to see more signs and a confirmation, i.e. a bearish momentum. At the same time, we see signs of reversal on the US dollar index (DXY) which has been dropping ever since my last post on shorting the Euro. I will probably cover that soon in a different post.

The path I drew resembles makes a head and shoulders pattern, but of course it's too early to make such a prediction. It is equally probable in my opinion that the Euro continues upwards toward $1.32 and higher.

If this were a short trade, it would be easy to decide a stop loss point at about $1.24.

2022년 1월 14일

매매 수동청산

After this successful short, I am exiting because I believe the Euro will go up vs USD for the majority of 2022 before continuing downwards for 2023 and 2024.
Cheers