19062023 - #EURUSD

2023년 6월 19일

DXY hit my bottom target on Thursday and on Friday I was looking for a further dip and recovery in DXY (which correspond to a spike and rejection for EURUSD) (tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/YFMJr7pz-16062023-EURUSD/). Indeed we see that price rallied on data then faltered, but it missed my level by 5 pips or so before dropping 50pips perfectly to the PZ which capped the lows. On daily, a doji candle was formed for Friday. Reversal candle?

There are lots of support below (of course there are as trend is up). Need to be nimble on shorts until things are more confirmed IMO. If it is not clear that things are bearish, better is just to look for longs after price dips, or can look for shorts when price rallies, with the view that it would be sold down.

For now, price is capped by the PZ and slowly moving down. Can look for shorts with stops above PZ to target BZ (1.0890) where market should give a bounce. If instead price goes up again, 1.0970, near last Friday's high, is a price to look for weakness to short for a move to PZ. Overall, from current looks, commodity currencies - AUD, CAD, NZD are looking weaker now - better candidates to trade vs USD.