EUR/JPY: DISCUSSION FOR THE WEEK OF JAN. 19-23

2015년 1월 18일

the EUR/JPY Weekly chart has broken and closed below the kumo on the back of a highly impulsive bearish trading week. This may be a highly significant kumo breakout, given the large amount of time in which the pair has been trading above the kumo, dating all the way back to the beginning of 2013. Additionally, we’re looking at a likely tenkan-kijun cross as another bearish signal.
In terms of the fundamentals, the shocking SNB decision to unpeg the Franc’s tie to the Euro means a large buyer of Euro has just stepped away from the market, the decreased demand is likely to extended the market’s bearish sentiment of the Euro. Adding to that factor, we have the Greek election coming up, and other Euro-Zone political factors which may stoke the fires of the Euro’s precipitous decline.
Meanwhile, Japan remains in wait for the next round of QE. It appears that the latest round of QE has been absorbed in the Yen’s pricing, and currently, the risk off sentiment of the global market tends to suggest a strengthening yen.
The EUR/JPY is traditionally correlated with the equity markets, and so a medium to long-term short on this pair can be an alternate route of action for anyone wanting to profit from the bearish momentum in worldwide stocks at the moment.