EUR/GBP Technical outlook and review.

2014년 7월 29일

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Current price action is seen trading just above weekly demand at 0.79631-0.78623. As we see it, price still has room to drop further into the weekly demand area due to there being possible consumed demand area to the far left.

• Daily timeframe: A break south has been seen below daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206, price should be relatively free now to hit the next daily demand area below at 0.78117-0.78533, however, expect the possibility that price may rally to the 0.79751 area before hitting the aforementioned daily demand below, as pro money may require liquidity to drop price in the form of buy orders to sell into (Buyers were no doubt stopped out around the daily demand area at 0.78862-0.79206, these orders were sell orders, and were definitely no good for selling into! So, pro money would likely buy into them, pushing prices higher to entice other buyers to join, once they do, they would begin selling, hence the reason a sell-off is still expected into the aforementioned weekly demand area).

It was reported in the last analysis the following is likely to happen:

We believe a small rally north is likely to be seen to around the aforementioned 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358 or 4hr supply above at 0.79795-0.79684 before lower prices are seen. Why do we believe this? The weekly timeframe is NEARLY at the weekly demand area, and has a little way to go before arriving there, also as reported above, the daily timeframe analysis predicts we will see a small rally higher before lower prices are seen, due to the consumed daily demand area (for details, see above). So, taking this all into consideration, higher prices are likely to be seen on the 4hr timeframe before a much bigger sell off (from the 4hr areas mentioned above) to at least the 4hr demand area below at 0.78602-0.78320 which is also neatly located just above daily demand at 0.78117-0.78533, and more importantly, just within weekly demand at 0.79631-0.78623.

We will now be watching the following levels very carefully for a bearish reaction: 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358, and 4hr supply above at 0.79795-0.79684.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78602-0.78320) at 0.78641. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is due to its current location on the higher timeframes. Our 4hr demand area is just above daily demand at 0.78117-0.78533 and also just within the upper area of weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the supply area (0.79795-0.79684) at 0.79651. The reason for a pending sell order being set here, rather than a P.A confirmation sell order was because this area looks very hot for a first-time reaction. Notice how price faked above the S/R flip level at 0.79679 then dropped back down, there is very likely unfilled sell orders still lurking around this area, hence the need for a pending sell order.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358 at 0.79293. We have set a P.A confirmation sell order because price could very well smash straight through this level up to the 4hr supply area at 0.79795-0.79684 which is beautifully located around the daily S/R flip level at 0.79751.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.78641 (SL: 0.78288 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.79651 (SL: 0.79828 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: 0.79293 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).