ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.22

2020년 7월 22일

🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere.

I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer considering that no-deal brexit is still to come and counter any short-lived GBP strength. I am fortunate enough to be dealing with an audience who can take a hint and understand when not to believe politicians.

It went:

Next came:

And now we are entering into a whole game, because EURGBP is a good example of how even in FX both sides can align to the same direction and define the central strategy.

Here the following line remains that Brexit is giving up competitiveness and market access (at least in the Short-term we can agree whatever your view is on the matter) which opens up the need for currency devaluation. As long as the UK side makes soft, it makes it difficult to build a constructive view on GBP.

The latest ‘track and trace’ systems entering into the picture will weigh heavy on consumer confidence and ensure GBP will remain soft. Actively tracking the same loading zones with 0.905x to add longs in EURGBP and 1.270x to load shorts in GBPUSD.

A previous example was last year with the elections, but this is no less imaginative.

In a situation where both fundamental sides align, EURGBP will be able to turn the 0.91xx handle into a new base for activity which we can handle in an almost virtuoso fashion.

As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎

2020년 7월 22일

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