ETH short-term bearish trend with major pivot point
ETH is keeping on going down, following his actual short-term trend, targetting the support of the ascneding channel. ETH may hit the support somewhere around Dec 3, 05:00 AM, UTC+2. Time is not exact but we should find the support somewhere around that date.
This point is determined by two factors :
1. The support of the ascending channel on the daily chart, which we hit three times on Jul 20, Sep 21 and Sep 29. From Aug 28, the EMA200 has always been below the support.
2. The Fibonacci retracement, with the lowest point @ ~$2650 on Sep 21 and the highest point (which is the ATH) @ ~$4870 on Nov 10. The 0.5 mark of the retracement hits the support of the ascending channel on Dec 5, 05:00 AM, UTC +2.
The first thing to look for is a trend reversal following the double bottom on the daily chart. If no trend reversal occurs, we will then look for the support at ~$3750. Two scenarios may happen :
1. ETH breaks the support and falls down towards the 0.618 fibo retracement.
2. ETH bounces off of the support and rises towards the 0.382 fibo retracement.
In the first case, we could think of the beginning of either a bigger retracement, or in the worse scenario, the beginning of a bear market. We will then have to study the behavior of BTC and ETH to see where we'll be at at that time.
In the second case, we could see ETH rising up again, breaking the ATH and the $5000 mark. We will then have to look for the resistance of the ascending channel.
What scenario should we trust ? As we can see, the important level is @ ~$3760, which is just $100 above the huge resistance that held the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern that occurred between Sep 7 and Oct 14. The EMA200 is still far below us, and we are currently hitting (and maybe bouncing off of) the EMA50. Meanwhile, the EMA100 might be stabilizing until it hits the support of the ascending channel, on Dec 5. The Stoch RSI will probably be going down below the oversold threshold, which may indicate an incoming rise of the price. The only indicator going against this is the supertrend, which will very probably switch from Buy to Sell.
This point is determined by two factors :
1. The support of the ascending channel on the daily chart, which we hit three times on Jul 20, Sep 21 and Sep 29. From Aug 28, the EMA200 has always been below the support.
2. The Fibonacci retracement, with the lowest point @ ~$2650 on Sep 21 and the highest point (which is the ATH) @ ~$4870 on Nov 10. The 0.5 mark of the retracement hits the support of the ascending channel on Dec 5, 05:00 AM, UTC +2.
The first thing to look for is a trend reversal following the double bottom on the daily chart. If no trend reversal occurs, we will then look for the support at ~$3750. Two scenarios may happen :
1. ETH breaks the support and falls down towards the 0.618 fibo retracement.
2. ETH bounces off of the support and rises towards the 0.382 fibo retracement.
In the first case, we could think of the beginning of either a bigger retracement, or in the worse scenario, the beginning of a bear market. We will then have to study the behavior of BTC and ETH to see where we'll be at at that time.
In the second case, we could see ETH rising up again, breaking the ATH and the $5000 mark. We will then have to look for the resistance of the ascending channel.
What scenario should we trust ? As we can see, the important level is @ ~$3760, which is just $100 above the huge resistance that held the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern that occurred between Sep 7 and Oct 14. The EMA200 is still far below us, and we are currently hitting (and maybe bouncing off of) the EMA50. Meanwhile, the EMA100 might be stabilizing until it hits the support of the ascending channel, on Dec 5. The Stoch RSI will probably be going down below the oversold threshold, which may indicate an incoming rise of the price. The only indicator going against this is the supertrend, which will very probably switch from Buy to Sell.
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