Ethereum Cyclical Analysis

Ethereum has proven itself to find solid ground at elevated heights since 2016. ETH is a central part of current crypto innovation and has even gone as far as separating itself from being considered just an "Alt" coin. It has real utility and real use case.

Now, we are just going to analyze this chart and try to understand where we are in this cycle if history can prove to be any measure.

As you can see, the pattern has been quite consistent and very reliable thus far. Price either rises and forms a consolidation channel (2016 & 2021) or price falls and forms a consolidation channel (2018). From there we see five touches (3 touches on the top and 2 on the bottom).

The two touches on the bottom of the channel will likely prove to be the most important as it indicates that one more touch at $1,700 is needed to ignite the next real Bull Rally.

Now, that is not to say $1,700 is going to be ETH's next stop because the chart also implies the price may reach the $4,000 area before doing so and reversing.

In any case, we can also use the time between each cycle to our advantage. I have taken the mean of the last two cycles and used 542 Days as just a rough estimate of when the price may leave the channel.

One thing I want to note is the Bearish Divergence on the RSI that has presented itself in every cycle thus far. The ETH price moves higher, while the RSI trends lower. Now is no different and is showing the same Divergence. This raises the odds of ETH retesting $1,700 higher at some point.

If the pace were to continue from each cycle, this would roughly put ETH between $15,000 - $20,000 after the next Bull Rally.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the ETH/BTC ratio. There seem to be two paths going forward and noticing which one is taking place can give some insight into where the trend is heading.