ETH - 4th wave in progress?

ETHUSD

There's a case to be made for a potential 4th wave still in progress. If this is the case, we might see a 50% - 61.8% retracement, bringing us to the low $200 ranges. Important to note that elliot wave states that wave 4 can retrace up to wave 1 territory (even into it slightly in highly leveraged markets), which is congruent with this outlook.

Another scenario is simply for a break up from the triangle. This would mean that ABC correction ended at the point I've denoted as "A", and waves B and C as I've denoted them are actually subwaves 1 and 2. If we break upwards out of the triangle, I will target a 1.618 extension at roughly $300.

I will be waiting for a break out from this triangle formation before entering a position. Make plans for bear and bull scenarios, wait for confirmation, and stick to the plan. I've lost more than I care to admit entering trades too early, before confirmation.

My bias remains bullish at this time. What are your thoughts?