ETH "Buy the Dip" opportunity?

3일 전

The pullback I outlined in my last ETH post came to fruition, however, there was a surprise retest of resistance before failing again and pulling back. Now we are at the bottom of the ascending channel but if we lose support here, it looks like we may be forming a sideways channel, in light blue lines on the chart. With support of bottom of channel and 200 EMA on the 4h candle, seems like a good chance to hold here. Lets look at the details.

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# ETH/USD Analysis – 4H Chart 📊

## Structure and Price Action:

**Parallel Ascending Channel**
ETH/USD is trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bounds (green lines). The price is currently testing the **lower trendline support** of the channel, following a recent rejection near the **$4,000–$4,050** region.

**Bearish Rejection at Resistance**
Sellers stepped in at the **$4,050 Bearish Order Block (OB)** (red zone), leading to a sharp reversal. This indicates heavy supply at this level, halting upward momentum.

**Bullish Order Block Retest**
The price is approaching multiple **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), a strong demand area where buyers previously defended.

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## Support and Resistance:

**Immediate Resistance**
- **$3,800–$4,000**: Key resistance zone aligning with the upper channel boundary and recent bearish OB.
- **$4,050**: Critical rejection level and prior swing high.

**Key Support Levels**
- **$3,500–$3,600**: Primary demand zone, reinforced by bullish OBs.
- **$3,300**: Secondary support area in case of deeper pullback.

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## Indicators

**EMAs (20/50/100/200):**
- Price has fallen **below EMA 20 ($3,880.60)** and **EMA 50 ($3,810.46)** – short-term bearish bias.
- **EMA 100 ($3,613.86)**: Acting as dynamic support near the current price.
- **EMA 200 ($3,380)**: Long-term support level.

**Parabolic SAR**
- SAR dots are **above the price**, signaling bearish momentum. Watch for a shift below the price for trend reversal.

**Volume**
- Volume **spiked on the recent drop**, reflecting increased selling pressure near the lower channel boundary.

**Stochastic RSI**
- Stochastic RSI is **oversold** (3.69/7.86), signaling potential for a short-term bounce.

**Money Flow Index (MFI)**
- MFI sits at **23.89** (oversold), suggesting buyers may soon step in.

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## Pattern Analysis:

**Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk**
ETH/USD is at the **lower channel support ($3,600)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish channel and trigger bearish momentum.

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## Probabilistic Outlook

**Bullish Bounce (Primary Scenario):**
If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone and volume increases:
- **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and recent resistance).
- **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,050 (upper channel resistance and bearish OB).

**Bearish Breakdown (Alternate Scenario):**
If price closes below **$3,500**:
- **First Target**: $3,300 (next significant support).
- **Second Target**: $3,200–$3,000 (psychological support and structural zone).

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## Key Signals to Watch:
1. **Lower Channel Support ($3,600):** Break below = bearish continuation.
2. **Volume on Breakdown or Bounce:** Rising volume confirms the move.
3. **EMA 100 Support ($3,613):** Holding this EMA could trigger a short-term bounce.
4. **Stochastic RSI and MFI:** Both oversold; favoring bounce unless sellers persist.

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## Order books
Took a significant hit, losing about 15% of its prior levels. The market depth ration has remained stable, inferring bullish sentiment overall but weakening books can deteriorate this, we will look for order book levels to recover past today's levels to validate reversal.

## Conclusion
ETH/USD is at a **critical juncture** within the ascending channel. Buyers must defend **$3,600** to maintain the bullish structure. A successful bounce targets **$3,800–$4,000**, while a breakdown below **$3,500** could open the door for a decline toward **$3,300–$3,200**.

🔍 **Watch volume and key support levels for confirmation of the next move.** 🚨