ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: BTC Highs. What's Going On?

2017년 8월 12일

ETHUSD Update: Nice breakout of 310 on rising volume , but no follow through while BTC is making all time highs? Although price structure remains bullish , I interpret this lack of follow through as a sign of weakness. If BTC is the leader, what happens if there is a healthy retracement in that market? Or is the correlation unwinding? I don't want to be long from these levels to find out.

First let's cover the bullish argument. The 279 level is still intact, there is a higher low at 295 which is a sign of strength. The breakout at 310 occurred, and price is sitting on the recent swing high. If BTC was exhibiting the same behavior, all this price action would be acceptable, but BTC is pushing serious highs and that adds new context to this situation.

It is very possible that this market is just slow to react for whatever reason, and will grind higher, but I would be very cautious at these levels. Certainly not looking to put on any new trades, risk is too high. At this point I will be focusing more on watching the risk. If this market falls below the 295 minor support and retests the 279 level, that would be the only area I would consider for a long, using the 263 level as a stop. If 263 is taken out, then this market is more inclined to exhibit a larger consolidation.

Keep in mind, if the market has a pull back of this degree, the larger trend will still be bullish . It would have to go below 208 to put the larger trend in question. I am not predicting the degree of pullback, all I am saying is if it is a little more uncomfortable than expected, do not be distracted by all the noise that will follow. Keep your eye on the price action around the major supports for clues.

In summary, in terms of price structure, this market still exhibits strength, but in light of the BTC performance, this market is acting relatively weak and when I see this kind of behavior I become very cautious. To be clear, I am still long term bullish , but this lack of follow through may lead to a retest of the deeper support levels.

I will answer all the questions and comments from the previous reports and this one also, so any additional comments or questions are welcome.