ETHUSD:Resistance Offers Profit Target But Consolidation Likely.

2017년 12월 25일

ETHUSD update: A higher low unfolds off of the upper boundary of the 573 support zone leading to a new swing high within the 712 to 772 resistance zone. If price retraces from here, the market is signaling a consolidation, not higher prices.

First, if you managed to buy into the higher low area, the current resistance 712 to 772 is the .618 area relative to the initial bearish swing, and is also an area to lock in some short term profits if that was your original intention. If you are struggling with the idea that price may go to 815 again and feel that taking some profit here will result in a "loss" if price goes higher, then short term trading is not for you. These resistance zones are not guaranteed to lead to a price decline, but they do offer a good estimate of where to maximize a profit based on the risk taken at the time the trade was initiated.

You don't have to lock it all in, but half is not a bad idea. It reduces risk, and still allows you to participate if the market does continue higher. If the market falls apart instead, you at least capitalized on the move and can look to add to your position on the retrace. That is how a swing trade evolves into a position trade, and works well as long as the market cooperates (in this case, stays in a long term bullish trend).

If this market does enter into a consolidation, there will be plenty of opportunities to capitalize on just on the long side alone. The next level I am watching is the 625 to 596 zone which is the .618 area relative to the current bullish swing. IF price can retest this area, I will be looking for bullish reversal patterns.

The other area to be prepared for is the reversal zone which has a lower boundary of 513. Any reversal price action within 573 to 500 (.618 support relative to the broader bullish structure) is an attractive area to buy for swing trades and long term positions in my opinion. Price can go lower, but there are some relevant support structures along the way that make for a strong bullish argument (like the 480 old resistance area now a new support).

In summary, when price action gets noisy, the best areas to evaluate are the range extremes which take some time to define. The worst place to evaluate is the middle because that is where randomness is high. Straight up markets like we have seen in the previous 8 weeks are easy for the inexperienced because they do not understand what happens when the environment changes. The same impulsive emotions of greed and fear will motivate these participants to give back their profits through "gut feel" trading, "because it worked so well a week ago!". This is the nature of the herd and drives prices more than anything else on the short term. We are all wired this way, but that does not mean we have to be controlled by the herd mentality. Having a process to guide your decisions is what will separate you. The process won't be the same for everyone, but having one is key. This process is your trading plan.

Comments and questions welcome.

PS. Happy holidays to the Tradingview community and your families.