ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Market Must Choose.

2017년 10월 11일

ETHUSD Update: 303 to 308 minor resistance prevents any upside progress, but the 280 support has not been taken out which puts this market in a range. Most likely price action will stay this way until the highly anticipated fundamental events are out of the way.

Even as BTC almost reached 5k and retraced, this market has not made any moves that are worth the risk from a swing trade perspective. As far as day trading levels, again if you are up for that (I do not day trade these), the 286 area is supportive, while the low 300s is your minor resistance. If you have the time, patience and system to help you navigate that range, small profits can be extracted, but you seriously need to make sure your risk is small. If the 280 support breaks for any reason, it will most likely trigger more selling because of the double top that has been established at the 315 level.

With that being said the 303 to 308 minor resistance (.618 of recent bullish swing) can also establish itself as a lower high since price has tested it twice without making any progress. This type of lower high is a bearish sign and can lead to the support breaks mentioned in the above paragraph and in previous reports. The lower high is not in play until the 280 area support is taken out.

Often range bound markets can break out either way, it really is all dependant on the perception of the outcome of what ever event this market is waiting for. Taking any positions ahead of time in anticipation of a break out is not worth the risk. And if anything, the top of this range is a lower high compared to the 400 level, along with the 320 to 350 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) which has not even been touched, the bias continues to be bearish in the short term. Since I am not shorting these markets, I have no choice but to stay out and let the market decide.

In summary, if you zoom out and look at this market from a broader perspective, you can argue that the current price structure is forming a lower high which can eventually become a higher low. This can be confusing and again is better left to the market to ultimately decide. Remember, there is nothing to miss out on. If the market breaks higher, there will be plenty of opportunities to get onboard. If it breaks lower, it will eventually offer buying opportunities at great prices which is in line with buying as an investment (core position). In my experience, it is always better to let the market choose because it won't cost you anything, and when conditions are clear, you will be much more prepared and more confident to participate.

Comments and questions welcome.