ETH Bottom in April 2023?

2022년 11월 24일

I haven't made a post in some time - namely because I wanted to let the FTX issue settle. It's interesting times on Twitter, sentiment is overall bearish, and it's hard to make heads or tails of the market at the moment, given the ongoing threat of multiple liquidations of ETH and BTC from the FTX hacker. Furthermore, at any point where we see some recovery, we end up seeing a more challenging step down, hurting a lot of investors in the short term who may be short on liquidity and fearful of recession or ongoing inflation challenges. I searched for some time to understand why this was happening and found an idea I wanted to track and test.

** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice


The assessment highlighted a flag on the 3D (translates to 1W and 1D charts, too) time band, which clarified the movements of BTC and ETH recently (I'm tracking ETH as my preferred coin). I saw this flag set-up being discussed on Twitter and was compelled to follow it. It shows a deep falling bullish wedge (off the bull run's peak) with an approximate end point of April 2023 - to my surprise, it seems to be holding up well against the price movement of BTC and ETH. After setting my chart up to align with the discussion I found on Twitter, I added the fib retracement to see if there was any associated correlation, and there seems to be some worth watching.

So the landscape, as it was discussed on Twitter, hypothesised that BTC/ETH will likely move from a. to b., then to c before breaking out toward the 1850 fib resistance. I feel aligned with this thinking, but I want to test a broader range of scenarios using this flag rather than blindly accepting Twitter theories (which are often very wrong!)

My test cases are;
If there will be a breakout at a.
If b. holds or tanks
If position c. will have a breakout at ~1290
Or if we continue downward into April 2023 before seeing any relief from this crypto winter (ego 'the real bottom')
April isn't the bottom, and more movement down continues.

I hope you'll follow along as I track the 5 scenarios

How do you feel about this chart, by the way? Do you think the bottom is already in? Do you think the bottom will be worse than this? Would love to hear your thoughts.