Has the Time for ETH Finally Arrived?

11월 7일

After a long period of abysmal performance and having been sufficiently tarred and feathered by the broader crypto community, it appears this is as good a place as any for ETHBTC to be in the area of a major bottom. Rather than go too in depth, let's summarize the key points:

Since ETF approval and launch, ETH has underperformed on a relative and absolute basis, with ETHBTC seeing weak and short lived countertrend rallies that have been heavily sold into. Savvy participants have likely used these weak pops to increase short positioning on absolute terms and as a hedge against other longs, primarily versus BTC and SOL. Since the merge, ETHBTC has been in one of the most steady downtrends, providing free money on shorts over 2 years and as a valid way to (correctly) express bullishness on BTC dominance.

Open Interest has steadily climbed since ETH began ranging over the summer. Combine this with the context of the above, and one can infer that a large amount of that OI is likely short positioning that is about to be entirely offsides if we breakout from this range to the upside. The combination of short covering with the recognition that the market is heavily underweight the #2 asset in crypto - the only altcoin with a functional ETF onboarding mechanism amidst a highly positive incoming regulatory backdrop - will provide fuel for what I believe to potentially be the strongest and most parabolic rally in ETH post-FTX. On a technical level, while it may be a meme, we have a 3 drives RSI bullish divergence on the daily showcasing increasingly weak sell-offs. Swing longing into the inverse of that has historically been a mistake (see BTC spring 2021 top). The bullish view is also contingent on ETH breaking out from the multi-month range on the USD pair, closing above $2670 on the daily and holding is needed for initiation.

Hated assets tend to catch people offsides. "Scams pump the hardest" is the crypto credo. SOL at $15-20 was the last time I remember an asset as hated and forgotten as ETH, the only other broadly hated coin of interest currently being TIA for which I'm even more optimistic. While it likely continues to underperform select alts or SOL, its a compelling trade on a risk-adjusted basis that can comfortably be taken on with leverage via ETHT or similar vehicles. It is an excellent expression for the time in which we find ourselves, both in the market cycle as well as the regulatory and narrative backdrop. A major profit target of interest is at the confluence of the 2024 POC and 2022 lows around 0.052.

If this thesis is correct than the most significant alt season post-FTX has possibly either begun or is upon us. This makes sense cyclically and psychologically for a variety of reasons. It takes about 2-3 years for the market to completely forget and shake off the fears and phobias picked up from the destruction of the last bear. Their amnesia unfortunately returns just as it is most warranted. 2025 is likely the year to be gradually exiting the crypto markets back into fiat. Position aggressively early and DCA to fiat on the way up.

If the rally fails to materialize and ETH continues to underperform, I think this would be a major warning sign from the market that it's #2 spot is in jeopardy and it doesn't have the moat assumed. A counterpoint to all of the above is that we are in a steady downtrend, and I'm usually not one to catch a falling knife. I've just begun positioning in ETHT and will use this as a proxy for my more significant non-ETH altcoin exposure. Let's see what happens, and open to hearing thoughts on all sides. Happy trading and wishing great success to all!