ETC/USD: Bearish Sentiment Dominates

8월 2일

In my latest analysis of ETC/USD on the daily time-frame, I've observed significant bearish pressure mounting as the price hovers around crucial support levels. The chart clearly illustrates a series of Elliott Waves, combined with Ichimoku Cloud analysis and volume profile, pointing towards potential outcomes in the near term.

Key Observations:
Wave Structure:

Multiple WAVE I points have been identified, marking significant impulsive moves followed by corrections. The latest WAVE I suggests the start of another downward wave after a brief recovery attempt, which is currently being tested at lower levels.
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis:

The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a bearish trend. The cloud has acted as resistance, further reinforcing the downward momentum. This bearish sentiment is likely to continue unless the price can decisively break back above the cloud, which seems challenging given the current market conditions.

Price Targets:

NT Target (28.86): This level was a significant target during the previous upward move, but the failure to sustain above this level indicates strong resistance and the potential for further declines.

N Target (17.3): The price is approaching this key target, which could serve as a critical support level. A break below this level could open the door to even lower prices, potentially testing the V Target (11.18).

V Target (11.18): This lower target would represent a significant bearish move, aligning with a continuation of the current downtrend if the market sentiment remains negative.

Possible Outcome:
Given the current setup:

Bearish Scenario: If the price continues to decline and breaks through the N target at 17.3, we could see an accelerated move towards the V target at 11.18. This scenario aligns with the overall bearish outlook and would suggest that the bears are firmly in control.

Bullish Reversal Potential: Should the price find strong support at the N target or the current level around 19.03, a reversal could be possible. However, the price would need to reclaim the NT target at 28.86 and move back into the Ichimoku Cloud to signal a potential shift in trend.

Conclusion:
The chart suggests that ETC/USD is under significant bearish pressure, with key support levels being tested. The failure to hold above critical targets indicates a high likelihood of further downside, particularly if the price breaks below the N target at 17.3. I will be watching closely to see how the price reacts at these levels, as they will likely determine the next significant move for ETC/USD. Traders should remain cautious and consider the broader market context when positioning themselves in this volatile environment.

PJB