Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action.
Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key.
Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262.
News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024
Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges.
Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations.
Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion.
IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook.
FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts.
International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks.
Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions.
Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action.
Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key.
Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262.
News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024
Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges.
Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations.
Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion.
IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook.
FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts.
International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks.
Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions.
Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
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