Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4th

11월 3일

Plan for Monday

Supports:

• Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502
• Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506

Overview:

We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677.

Key Zones for Monday:

• 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup.
• 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here
• 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions.

Resistances:

• Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976
• Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944,

The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction.

Bull Case for Monday:

Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended.

Bear Case for Monday:

The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure.

Summary for Monday:

The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.