es 5-26 update part #1

spy, breaking through some key levels this morning.
flow looks decent,
most peoples are short.

a squeeze was bound to happen.

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the question is, will it continue, or is this yet again another dead cat bounce?

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taking a look at how the es1! came down, it was in a perfect 3 wave move
5-3-5, labeled as an a-b-c (potentially the first of three).


a closer look at the daily structure, and a clear sign of demand down here through these elongated wick;


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i feel this situation should be approached with total caution, considering we're in a fairly large downtrend, but there is a pretty nice potential for follow-through in the weeks ahead.
my target for this move would be roughly at 4278.75~ 4431.25, which will likely be reached through another simple zig-zag (5-3-5) \ (a-b-c).

If, big if - the target is reached through a 5 wave move instead, then we can safely assume that a significant bottom has been put in, and a new high could potentially be created in the many months to come.

💰

I do have one more idea as to what could potentially be going on, and i'll share it in my next post.