Here are my levels for this the coming week. ES had a sharp reversal last week bouncing 2.56% after trading down for 3 weeks in a row. Dispite the strong rally the risk of bearish continuation remains high. A rejection at the top of the red box could easily send price into a compound corrective move down to the 200 sma and the July 27th high. Much depends on the reaction to FOMC, NFP as well as the earnings reports from AAPL and AMZN.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
- ES posted a weekly gain of 2.56% after trading in a huge 140 pt range
- ES made a sharp reversal back above the 2021 high and the 9 & 55 emas
- ES had the best weekly gain since Nov 2023.
- R2 = LTF 618 Fib RT (5190)
- R1 = 21 ema/ 55 ema (5141)
- S1 = 9 ema (5109)
- S2 = 2012 high (5092)
- Bias remains down to sideways as the upward trendline has been broken.
- 200 SMA price magnet in play
- Compound corrective move down to the July 27th high & 200 SMA is possible
- FOMC Rate decision on Wed & Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
- Heavy week of earnings ahead including reports from AAPL, AMZN, MA, AMD, COIN & NET.
- Global event risk is high
- Sell in May effect in play.
- RSI 47.80| VIX at 15.02 | 10 year 4.66%
