SPX - The Alternative Count, in detail

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If we can't get over this morning's highs we may be in the middle of a larger ABC move to completely wash out the market. This would give the "it's 2008 again" crowd encouragement to go all in short and the bulls to give up completely before the larger bounce in January.

If we are in a C wave down, very few are talking about it (none that I've seen at least).

A "C wave" should be very fast - probably finish by January 1st. It's possible 1-2 of C was completed yesterday as I mentioned. If 3 of C is next, expect a large gap down on Monday and continued forced selling, high vix readings, high SPX put/call readings etc. The clue will be taking out the low from yesterday. If they do that, it's game on for a big washout before the end of year.

The count is invalid if futures gets over 3880
read that again!
Good luck!

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took a short position at open, stop at the morning highs on ES.

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move from this mornings economic numbers looks like ABC for 2 of C

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leading diagonal finished for wave 1. If correct the next wave should break yesterday's lows and traders will recognize this is not the bounce they expected.

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moment of truth

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spy stopped so far at .618 fib of the move down yesterday, ideal shorting area with a tight stop.

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closed the day between the 61.8 and .658 fib. Sellers would not allow it to go higher, interesting

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Good morning, I hope you had a nice holiday weekend. Futures pumped a bit overnight, still looks like a B wave in progress. I can see a move up to 3920 (fib line) and the reject - that area is also strong horizontal resistance. Over 3940 on futures and likely we go to 4k

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put / call on equities is quite low - ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio

Put/call on SPX also - ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_spx_put_call_ratio

Many are calling for a santa rally, but I think it could be a santa trap if we reject at 3920 area

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Another count possibility is an ending diagonal for the 5th wave, this also looks good to me and maybe more accurate.

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TSLA down more than 5% premarket. This is one of the more widely held stocks among large funds.

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Potential structural support at about 3780-3765 (purple)

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18ma weekly is the battle ground. bias is down until they can hold over it for a week

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closed the day under all the daily ma's and the 18 weekly ma. Daily candle looks like a hanging man.

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also the slow stochastic is embedded bearish - if they lose it tomorrow it's more positive. PUT/Call still skewed bullish or Neutral

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no change this morning, I still expect a drop to the orange trendline area. That's also the price area of the daily Bollinger Band

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another possibility is we have an ending diagonal, which would shake out many hands before a pump higher.

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fast move up is likely C wave, watch out for bull trap here.

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yep bull trap, looks like 3750 may be next

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put/call on equities and spx is still surprisingly low.

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fib support on SPY and SPX cash, might cool off a bit here, but I think it will continue lower. Vix is barely up today....

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Good morning, it does look right now that we're in a triangle formation, which can mean a 4th wave before the final 5th, or a B wave before the final C. Either way, I think it's just a consolidation before the next down move, but we'll see more later. This may be invalidated after 8:30 jobs numbers and will update as I see it. I have some errands to do this morning, will get back to the charts in the afternoon.

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if a C wave will follow, this may be a bear pennant forming. babypips.com/learn/forex/pennants

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A rally today past 3820 may look bullish, but I'm thinking it won't be.

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target zone for that possible E wave is in reach here.

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E has reached the trendline area, it could go higher but if it's a pennant it should not get over the C wave. Price on ES is different, so please check your charts. RSI is already showing hidden bearish divergence on mid time frames.

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spy right to the 18ma on the weekly - again

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Good morning, bear pennant still looks fine, no breach of the C wave. My guess is next week is going to be a surprise move down for the new year unless they can save this today.