We tested the 18ma again (3680) yesterday and held it successfully. We came down to it overnight and held it again. This lines up with the pitchfork fib line and so I still lean bullish until both are taken out. Out of all the major indexes, only NQ is slightly under it's 18ma, and that may confirm over it today. A move above 3760 on an hourly close on ES will give a better confirmation that we're going higher.
코멘트:
possibly in a channel, if bullish move continues
코멘트:
as i posted news hit from England. Watch 3660, if it breaks we are likely going lower and the 18ma/pitchfork becomes resistance
코멘트:
if we break down under 3660, I'm going to wait for a backtest of support and then take a short trade - good luck
코멘트:
VIX under it's 18ma for 3 days, bearish until it isn't. I would not be shocked if this news is bought instead of sold. They will find a reason if so.
코멘트:
a good fight here at 3700, here's a possible path for bulls. I'm waiting for a backtest of any break above previous highs to try a long trade. A break above 3760 and hold would be very bullish (previous highs)
코멘트:
getting above resistance, bulls need to hold 3700 now
코멘트:
SPY over previous trendline - bullish. Pullbacks to it should be bought. Everything looks bullish so far, waiting for safer entry.
코멘트:
buyers stepping in but if for some reason they cannot hold 369 now, we could have a 3 wave correction and this is a bull trap. Stops are in at 369
코멘트:
Futures need to hold 3700, breakout area
코멘트:
SPY at support zone, they need to hold this level
코멘트:
they are losing support on SPY - not great but nothing is decided yet - I will hedge with shorts on any retest and stop out of longs at 369 if it comes. Bulls want to recapture 371.5 on SPY
코멘트:
looking better for bulls now, I will keep hedges on in case they get below 370 today - it shouldn't get that low again if we're continuing the uptrend.
코멘트:
futures also finding support at structure, bulls don't want to see 3700 breached again today.
코멘트:
SPY is close to breaking down but a save would indicate the green path. Some would call it a bull flag - perhaps, but right now it's just a fight. I have to go out, good luck to everyone and talk to you later,
코멘트:
ok the bearish move happened while I was out. We are at support on spy here so I expect a bounce.
코멘트:
futures at 3685 area, still above the 18ma at 3670. If they break it today it will become resistance. Both spy and futures structures held back the bulls once they got under them
코멘트:
taking profits on most shorts, staying green for the day. the rsi bothers me here for bears.
코멘트:
hourly hidden bull divergence on spy here
코멘트:
could be a wxy for the B wave in which case i'd rather wait for the bounce and short again. If i'm wrong and it goes lower, that's fine.
코멘트:
they are losing the daily 18ma now on all indexes. For SPY it's at 365.6. The plan will be to see if they can bounce back today or tomorrow and close over it for the day and week. If they get to it but reject, it's a short. I would rather short on a bounce than in this hole.
코멘트:
potential channel on spy just in case this area holds.
코멘트:
retest of 18ma daily here, going to take a small short position overnight in case the market melts down for a black Friday. Yields are looking like a blow off top.
코멘트:
SPX - after the indecision candle yesterday we have bearish follow through today. We also closed under the 18ma by 2 points. See you tomorrow
코멘트:
vix also red today and under it's 18ma - maybe a triangle? daily chart -
