ES - Triangle Pattern - Plan for rest of October

Since last Friday's sell off based off Trump's tariff announcement on China, the price has been chopping in the range set by last Friday's high and low. The price has since made Lower Highs and Higher Lows driven by easing of Trump's sentiment towards China and Powell's dovish comments.

Next two weeks bring more volatility, with Tesla and Netflix reporting their earnings next week followed by the CPI report on Friday. The triangular pattern seems to converge on the 29th October which coincides with Fed's rate cut decision. To add to the fire, we have Big Tech earnings coming up as well starting 29th.

Additionally, the last day of the month is falling on a Friday, and since August 2024, when that happened, ES ended the day positive on 4 out of 6 occasions (August 2024, Nov 2024, Feb 2025 and May 2025). In 3 of these 4 occasions, ES ended up gaining over 50 points in the second half of the day, with Feb 2025 witnessing over 100 point gain in the last 2 hours.

The price could remain in this triangle and induce fake-outs leading up to the Fed meeting post which the upside and downside targets are as follows:

Upside: 6806, 6871 and 6908
Downside: 6540, 6488 and 6445

Hope this helps!