SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September

SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September

Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment

Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578

At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.

On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.


From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep


Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.