Path into Q3

Outlook for the Next Few Months
• Now–August OpEx: -2.5% to -5% slow correction
• August–September OpEx: potential 5–7.5% additional decline
• By late Q3: cumulative 10–12.5% drawdown (target S&P ~5700).
• October: possible bounce — or acceleration if data worsens
• End of Year: risk of deep drop à la Oct–Dec 2018 if trends continue

Macro Backdrop
• Watch for margin compression, CPI surprise, and unemployment uptick
• Private data shows more fragility than government numbers
• QRA-driven liquidity tightening may amplify downside risk

Political Timing and Fed Policy
• Administration may welcome controlled decline to enable early 2026 rate cuts
• If market doesn’t decline soon, blow-off top/melt-up into midterms possible